When discussing the topic of preparedness, the question often comes up, “How long should I prepare for?” Unfortunately there is no single answer to this question. When a 1906-size earthquake recurs here on the Mendocino’s North Coast, the answer will be different for everyone here depending on where they live and how far away from basic services they are.

Everything is relative

Consider the “Rural Factor” scale to be a theoretical ranking from 1-5 (or beyond): a factor of 1 reflects living in Fort Bragg within walking distance to a potential food distribution center. Planning for one week without food and water is sufficient for rural factor 1. But a factor of 5 would reflect a residence some distance from Fort Bragg or any other large source of resupply, with many obstacles thrown in between. For a rural factor of 5, you would want to plan for five weeks.

When calculating your own Rural Factor figure, consider where you live, and then consider what other things could go wrong, preventing you from reaching a resupply point. Some of these considerations would include areas of potential landslide, tree-falls, collapsed bridges, road wash-outs, etc. The more of these potential risks you face to get to the nearest resupply point, the higher your personal “modifier factor” should be applied to your base factor.

For example, if you live up Comptche-Ukiah Road 8 miles, you may have a base factor of 2 (typical for most of Caspar and Mendocino), but because there are power lines and trees that could block the road, you may want to add a point, increasing your factor of 3 (plan for at least three weeks).

Now a stronger case: you live a six miles up Cameron Road. South of the Navarro River would begin with a factor of a base factor of 4 (because of the number of bridges and other areas of road that could be taken out of service in a severe event). Because you have the additional distance as well as the Navarro River bridge, you might want to add an extra point to the base factor for a total of 5—thus planning for five weeks storage of food, water and other necessary supplies.

A general starting point

While there are always exceptions to every rule, we can make some general assumptions regarding the North Coast region and our chain-of-supply. If all roads were to be impassable due to structural failure or other barriers, we could make the following baseline assumptions about the rural factor:

Region	Factor
Fort Bragg	1
Cleone/Inverness	2
Westport	3
North of Westport/Branscomb Road	4
Caspar	2
Mendocino Village	2
Mendocino – lower Little Lake	2
Mendocino – upper Little Lake	3
Mendocino – upper Comptche-Ukiah Road	3
Little River	3
Albion	3
Upper Albion Ridge	4
Lower Navarro Ridge	3
Upper Navarro Ridge	4
Comptche / Flynn Creek	4
Elk / Greenwood Ridge	4

Time for refinements

Now consider where you are in relation to these central locations. If there are potential hazards or infrastructure failures that could make it harder for you to get to the resupply center, you need to adjust your factor accordingly.

Consider you have to cross a privately owned bridge, or you need to drive through a redwood tree grove to get to civilization. Count up the issues you have to face and add as many additional points as needed to come up with your rural factor adjustment. If you have a lot to deal with, don’t be afraid to add two adjustment points to your factor. It is better to over-prepare than to fall short.

Final revisions

Ultimately you can be the only judge of what your Rural Factor is. So take a good look around you the next time you drive to town for groceries and provisions. Consider what could go wrong, and incorporate these elements into your own personal plan. When in doubt, err towards the higher factor.

Preparing your household and workplace for a disaster can give you the advantage and peace of mind that can only come from preparedness. And when it comes to planning, there is no time like the present.